Web 2.0 is not the end of the revolution; it is but an evolution.
[+] Web 2.0 is a confusing term
On the topic of Web 2.0, I have written 10 series articles, spanning the areas of Internet
media,
search engine, online communities and electronic commerce. I elaborate my thoughts on Web 2.0 thoroughly with the axis on the idea that the declining cost of storage of bandwidth will trigger changes when it continues to drop to a critical level.
In this last article I would like to point out a simple fact that, for me, there is no such a thing as Web 2.0 in the world. The source of the confusion, which has become even more ambiguous when there are so many people in the world so eager to give it an explanation, lies in its version number.
The appearance of 2.0 easily leads people to mistake that it is a completely different thing from Web 1.0, and to ignore that there may also be versions like Web 1.7354 or Web 1.212 in between these two. It misleads people to think that web 2.0 is a Revolution but not Evolution.
This is why Web 2.0 is but a transition but not an end of some kind of revolution. As nobody can clarify the causes and effects and even the direction of future developments, it does not bring too many benefits to us by using this term.
[+] The survival condition for Internet services: Cost Along the course of Internet development, many new things have appeared, and managed to survive, with the decline of Internet bandwidth and computer storage cost. Many innovations may have been brought up long before the year of 2000, but they didn't make it to survive or succeed because of the lack of a favorable cost condition.
Now the
operators have found that they can buy bandwidth and storage several times as much as what they used to get with the same money, and now they can supply services, in great quantities, which they may not be able to provide even with huge investment. An example is the 1GB email service by
Google. This is the first type of typical responses.
For free personal homepage and photo album service appearing in the early time, once abandoned by
portals because of the unbearable burden of high bandwidth cost after the year of 2000, they are now in mass supply in the form of Blog similar to the old personal homepage service. There is now a favorable cost condition for the emergence and popularity of Blog.
Broadband access is getting more popular among Internet users, and users can get several times the bandwidth they used to get with the same amount of money. As such, users are become more willing to use more sophisticated services that demands higher bandwidth and involve more interaction. There are still cost conditions for users to accept certain types of services.
[+] Cost shifted back to Internet users It is not smart for website operators to only thinking about providing services that consume a lot of bandwidth. The real smart operators will think about how to shift the cost of high-bandwidth services back to users. As such, we've seen some
B2C services turning to the
C2C model.
One most striking example is the Internet phone service provided by
Skype, which shifts the part of the service that consumes the most bandwidth back to users by enabling them to connect to each other directly. The operational cost has thus been greatly reduced, which has drastically changed the cost structure of and the dynamics in the telecom industry.
The reason why Wikipedia can challenge the traditional Encyclopedia Britannica is that it has shifted the huge burden, the compilation of the encyclopedia, back to Internet users themselves. This is the typical challenge posed to B2C by C2C in the so-called Web 2.0 way.
Even software developers are taking this trend seriously and are starting to take advantage of it. Microsoft, Google and
Yahoo! rush to open their website API, hoping to attract programmers in the world to develop applications in accordance with their standards. It is exactly to throw back the software development cost back to the Internet.
[+] Cost conditions for web-based software to prevail Speaking of software, there are more and more software companies putting efforts in developing web-based software. In the past, consumers used to buy packaged software to install on their home PCs, now they only need to connect to vendors' websites to proceed with similar functionalities via their browsers without buying packaged software or any installation.
Among various web-based tools, those which provide functionalities similar to Microsoft Office receive most attention. Many websites provide registered users with functionalities similar to Word or Excel that can be operated via browsers; the most striking example is Google's Google Docs & Spreadsheets.
At the moment, these web-based browser-interfaced software tools are given for free, but there will certainly be for-pay services. For example, versions with less, simpler functions may be given to users free of charge and subsidized by
advertising revenue, but premium versions are to be provided on a monthly subscription basis. For developers, it means that they can sell software online now.
AJAX technology provides better interactivity and similar experience on a browser as that with conventional software. It also allows multiple users to edit the same document at the same time, enabling efficient communication. It was but it didn't hit the market many years ago when Microsoft put it at the core of its browser system. Why?
The answer is still the cost! For many years, software companies sell packaged software through distributors. Now because of "the declining cost of computer storage and network bandwidth", web-based versions will be cheaper than packaged ones in terms of selling costs. There are cost conditions for a product to become a market success.
[+] Take the advantage of low interpersonal communication cost When the bandwidth becomes cheaper for users, the cost of interpersonal communication, whether between acquaintances or strangers, will consequently fall. This paves the way for social network websites to take off. We finally come to realize that "the cost to find a certain type of people gets a lot lower than before", which is sure to arouse dramatic industrial changes.
When the cost of interpersonal communication keeps dropping, the transaction cost would be falling down too. By this it means that the intermediaries who had played a role in facilitating the meeting and transactions between two parties are no longer able to charge high fees for the matching service.
This is why
eBay has posed a threat to traditional B2C business, and classified websites like Craigslist are to encroach on the market of
auction websites like eBay. As the direction of the Internet development is clearly towards lower transaction cost, there will be little room for intermediaries to monopolize and charge for transaction information.
As for e-commerce companies, there is no need to fear or doubt, because the key underneath the transformational force has remained the same thing: cost. The only thing they need to think through is how to take the advantage of the growing user base to drive the cost down and to create more value.
[+] What does Web 3.0 look like? When will it arrive here? For those who are not familiar with the Internet industry, they may base their understanding on media reports and associate Web 2.0 with gossips and online dating, online diaries and photo sharing, getting to know more people through social network websites, or hearsays about big buyout bids for some Web 2.0 website.
I am always in the belief that terms like
RSS, Blog, SNS, and Wiki describe only the appearances; they are the effects, not the causes, of the changes. Allow me to reiterate that "the key is always the cost," and the true spirit of the so-called Web 2.0 is:
The root of the Internet revolution is but one thing - the ever declining cost of digital storage and transmission bandwidth. Socially, it is reflected on "the continuously falling cost of interpersonal communication; on the business side", it is "the gradual disintegration of enterprises which used to thrive on their monopoly of capital and information".
I have been asked by some reporters to predict the possible scenario of Web 3.0. All I can say is that, just imagine what will happen to the world when the above mentioned cost is approaching zero, and you may get to see some look of Web 3.0.
As to when Web 3.0 will arrive, I can give you a sure answer. It is when the fiber reaches each household or 4G
wireless broadband network prevails everywhere, when you can get bandwidth several times as much as that offered by
ADSL or
3G services now. It will surely arrive in five to ten years time.
(
2006/11/05
- By
Digitalwall.com - Way to
China Internet/Telecom )
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